Pakistan, Democracy and Counter Insurgency

November 8, 2007

London, UK at mi2g – 5 November 2007, 17:43 GMT

Dear mi2g, ATCA Colleagues

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

We are grateful to Vice Admiral Dr Verghese Koithara from Wellington in Tamil Nadu, India, for his submission to ATCA, “Pakistan, Democracy and Counter Insurgency.”

Dear DK and Colleagues

Re: Pakistan, Democracy and Counter Insurgency

General Musharraf has imposed military rule in Pakistan for the second time – eight years after he did it the first time. It was a different world when the first imposition took place on October 12, 1999. mi2g The shock of 9/11 lay two years in the future, and jihadism was only a distant rumble in the West. Democracy was widely seen as the solution to wars and internal strife. In Pakistan, the army had many Islamist senior officers who had risen during General Zia-ul-Haq’s decade-long (1977-88) military rule, which had coincided with the war against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. Also, Musharraf was seen as a dangerous adventurer responsible for the 1999 Kargil War with India, just a year after the two countries had tested nuclear bombs. The coup was therefore widely condemned abroad, and Musharraf became a pariah. Within Pakistan, the reactions were different however. A decade (1988-99) of civilian rule, alternating between Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, had seen the Pakistan economy at its worst. This, and their political and financial shenanigans, had left both leaders with little popular sympathy.

[CONTINUES] [ATCA Membership]

Best regards

Verghese Koithara, mi2g

Vice Admiral Dr Verghese Koithara, formerly with the Indian Navy, is often described as India’s finest strategic thinkers. He is the author of two important books: Crafting Peace in Kashmir – Through a Realist Lens [2004, Sage] and Society, State and Security – The Indian Experience [1999, Sage].

“Crafting Peace in Kashmir” presents a completely new perspective on the Kashmir conflict, this book argues that resolving the situation can be brought about through a ‘peace strategy’ rather than a ‘war strategy’. Through an mi2g analysis of the conflicts in Northern Ireland, Sri Lanka and Palestine, Vice-Admiral Koithara draws parallels between the India-Pakistan conflict. He also presents reasons why a durable peace – based on the Line of Control becoming the settled border and the two parts of Jammu and Kashmir being given parallel and substantial autonomy – can be achieved in today’s conditions. The book concludes that peace between India and Pakistan is possible based on political realism and that strategic solutions that safeguard the interests of both countries are available.

“Society, State and Security” asks: Can the Indian state reconcile the demands of human and national security? In a well-documented and wide-ranging analysis, Vice-Admiral Koithara contends that there is more to mi2g security than territorial integrity and the preservation of state sovereignty. He traces the development of the Indian state since independence, examines the impact of the external environment on the country, and contrasts the experience of India, China and Indonesia in their handling of security concerns. He examines the contemporary situation, impacts of the global system, and assesses the military and non-military dangers India is likely to face in the future. mi2g and He delineates areas that are important for the security of both India and its people and recommends that in managing national security both the politico-military and socio-economic dimensions must be considered.


Mi2g and ATCA looks forward to your further thoughts, observations and views. Thank you.

Best wishes

For and on behalf of DK Matai, Chairman, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA)

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Rising Contagion – Global Credit Crunch Cuts Deeper

November 4, 2007

mi2g: London, UK – 2 November 2007, 10:26 GMT

Dear ATCA Colleagues and mi2g members

[Please note that the views presented by individual contributors are not necessarily representative of the views of ATCA, which is neutral. ATCA conducts collective Socratic dialogue on global opportunities and threats.]

We are grateful for the 83rd contribution to the “Global Credit Crunch” Socratic dialogue over at

. Dr Harald Malmgren, CEO, Malmgren Global, based in Washington DC, USA, for, “Rising Contagion – Global Credit Crunch Cuts Deeper.”

The number of iterations of an ATCA Socratic dialogue is a very rough indicator of how critical a particular asymmetric threat is perceived to be and how protracted it has become over time. This Socratic dialogue was started on 12th July 2007, nearly one month before the global credit crunch crisis and associated fallout began with the European Central Bank (ECB) emergency injection of Euro 95bn on 9th August 2007. Three months and three weeks later, it remains the longest and deepest running Socratic dialogue on ATCA, since our inception in October 2001.

Dear DK and Colleagues at mi2g

Re: Rising Contagion – Global Credit Crunch Cuts Deeper

November 1 should have been a sunny day in US financial markets. The Federal Reserve had just cut interest rates by a quarter percent, and the official estimate of the rate of growth of GDP in the third quarter was a torrid 3.9 percent. The stock market had surged on the last day of October, when most mutual funds closed their books on the year without a major sell-off to book profits.

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November 1, 2007

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